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Showing posts from October, 2022

On advice

Most people are eager to ask for (good) advice. Many people make a living on giving advice - just look at how many self-help books are out there. But how do you know which advice to follow? Here are some common criteria to tell good advice from bad ones.  Does this advice itself follow logical reasoning and “make sense”? Is there a “consensus” about this advice?  Does this advice come from a “successful” person? The problem is there are good counter arguments against all the above.  Availability bias and belief bias. Think about a typical i/o system. The input is available information to a person, the model is the person’s belief system , the output is the conclusion whether this advice makes sense or not. Two people who believe they are both rational beings could easily arrive at opposite conclusions.  There’s an old saying “the truth lies in the hands of a few”. The appeal of good advice is that it’s not too obvious, contrarian or even controversial. If everyone agrees on this advic